By Professor Derek H. Aldcroft, Peter Fearon

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It is possible however to simplify matters by classifying theories into two broad categories as follows: (I) endogenous theories which show that the internal structure of the economy is such that it will generate fluctuations once the equilibriumhas been disturbed; and (2) exogenous theories which assert that forces outside the economic structure are responsible for producing fluctuations in economic activity. These two sets of theories represent opposite extremes though they are not mutually exclusive.

However, since many theories of business fluctuations accord a critical role to the instability of investment, any empirical study must take account of this variable. In most of the models the determinants of investment are usually taken to be the rate of change in total output (acceleration principle) or the level of output in relation to the size of the capital stock (capital stock adjustment principle). Such formulations have been the subject of much criticism and generally they do not represent the facts very adequately.!

Not all the components of aggregate demand behave in the same way, however. P. than expenditure on non-durables and services since it reacts more quickly to changes in income and is also subject to an accelerator and stock adjustment effect. Expendi1 A useful empirical study showing the relative stability of the consumption function and its resistance to deflationary pressures is that by S. H. Hyman, 'The Cyclical Behaviour of Consumers' Income and Expenditure, 1921-1961', Southern Economic]ourntJi, XXXII (1965).

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